Monthly Archives: April 2008

Quotable Liz

21:35: it’s bring your sons & daughters to work day.

21:43: and what does viacom have for the kids…instead of educational activities and stuff…they are in the conference room watching TRL

21:43: this company is so wrong

Prediction Markets

From Kevin LaManna @ Roundarch:

What is it?
“Prediction markets are speculative markets created for the purpose of making predictions. Assets are created whose final cash value is tied to a particular event (e.g., will the next US president be a Republican) or parameter (e.g., total sales next quarter). The current market prices can then be interpreted as predictions of the probability of the event or the expected value of the parameter. Prediction markets are thus structured as betting exchanges, without any risk for the bookmaker.

Other names for prediction markets include information markets, decision markets, idea futures, event derivatives, and virtual markets.

People who buy low and sell high are rewarded for improving the market prediction, while those who buy high and sell low are punished for degrading the market prediction. Evidence so far suggests that prediction markets are at least as accurate as other institutions predicting the same events with a similar pool of participants.”

View Wikipedia Entry

What Companies Are Currently Using It?
General Electric, Best Buy. Hewlett Packard, InterContinental Hotels Group, Google, General Mills…

How Are They Using It/ How Can We Apply it?
Companies are implementing Prediction Markets to…

  • Give management and people in the organization a true measurement of perception.
  • Provide executive management with data from multiple sources within the organization.
  • Channel new ideas from the workforce.
  • Provide a collaborative means of communication.
  • Facilitate predictions and forecasts of different goals, timelines, and metrics.
  • Reward those with fresh ideas and accurate forecasting.

Here’s the NY Times article mentioned in the meeting (published April 9th)… Here
What Are Some Examples?

www.intrade.com

http://politicalmarket.cnn.com/

http://inklingmarkets.com/ (Enterprise platform…)

http://sourceforge.net/projects/zocalo/ (Open source platform)